061 PCNP 12 E rev . 1 - AFGHANISTAN AND SOUTHWEST ASIAN SECURITY

Transition to full Afghan authority over security, governance and development is set to be completed in less than three years.  Yet, even as increasing numbers of international military advisors, soldiers and civilian personnel head home, it is unclear what kind of country they will leave behind.  The report of the Sub-Committee on NATO Partnerships examines the state of the transition today and reviews the uncertainties surrounding its future.  Although the Afghan police and army are increasingly taking responsibility for greater areas of Afghanistan, will they be capable of maintaining security in the entire country after 2014?  At what levels and for how long will the international community be willing to subsidize Afghan forces, and what will this mean for their size and for the country’s security?  The success of the transition also hinges on the effectiveness of Afghanistan’s government and the growth of its economy.  However, international assistance used to support improvements in governance could be reduced significantly after 2014, and foreign aid, which remains the the primary driver of economic growth, is already expected to fall between 2012 and 2013, and will likely drop considerably after 2014, adding uncertainty in this sphere as well. 

The picture in Afghanistan post 2014 will depend not only on internal developments and the international community’s engagement with the country, but also on regional players’ policies.  As such, in addition to examining developments within Afghanistan, this report looks at transition within the larger regional context.  The focus is on Pakistan, the most important player in this regard, as it shares with Afghanistan a contested, porous border, ethnic ties, economic links, and many of the same causes of insecurity.  But the report also reviews Iran’s and the neighbouring Central Asian Republics’ (Uzbekistan’s, Tajikistan’s, and Turkmenistan’s) interests in developments in Afghanistan.  Finally, the report’s rapporteur offers recommendations to NATO member states, the wider international community and regional players, which encourage not only Afghan stability and prosperity but also broad regional security and cooperation.

Download this Draft Report in Word or PDF format below.