DEFENCE AND SECURITY SUB-COMMITTEE ON TRANSATLANTIC DEFENCE AND SECURITY CO-OPERATION AND POLITICAL SUB-COMMITTEE ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE Visit to Skopje and Tetovo 9-12 April 2002 Secretariat Report This Secretariat Report is presented for information only and does not necessarily represent the official view of the Assembly. International Secretariat, 13 May 2002 I. OVERVIEW Seventeen members of the Sub-committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security Co-operation and the Sub-committee on Central and Eastern Europe travelled to the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia* from 9 to 12 April 2002 to gain information about the political and security situation in the country, NATO's Operation Amber Fox, and the country's preparation for NATO membership. Led by Peter Zumkley of Germany, chairman of the Sub-committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security Co-operation, and Ji_i Payne of the Czech Republic, chairman of the Sub-committee on Central and Eastern Europe, the committee met with a broad range of Macedonian citizens, from President Boris Trajkovski to ordinary people who have suffered during the unrest that gripped the country last year. On the first full day of the visit, the delegation met with top officials from the government and parliament, including the prime minister, defence minister, and president of parliament. On the second day, the group travelled to the north-western city of Tetovo, centre of last year's unrest, for meetings with municipal officials, representatives of both major ethnic groups, and commanders of Task Force Fox, the German-led NATO force in the country. The final day included meetings with the top civilian and military officials from NATO and the European Union, as well as a roundtable discussion with prominent local academics and non-governmental organisation leaders. After three days in the country, it became clear that while the security situation is peaceful and a return to fighting unlikely, there remains deep mistrust between the ethnic Macedonian and ethnic Albanian communities. Some international presence is likely for the foreseeable future, and it is likely that the EU will take on a greater role, particularly in commanding the security force that is protecting international civilian monitors. Establishing political stability will be essential if the country is to realise its goal of becoming a member of NATO. II. POLITICAL SITUATION The violence that erupted last March between ethnic Albanian rebels and government forces led Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski to request international assistance, a process that led to the signing of the Ohrid Peace Agreement in August. The government has fulfilled most of the commitments it made during the August peace negotiations. In November constitutional amendments were adopted, giving expanded rights to the ethnic Albanian minority that constitutes about a third of the population. The 15 amendments to the 1991 constitution make Albanian an official second language, give ethnic Albanian citizens a voice in parliament and guarantee their social, cultural and political rights. A law on local self-government measures was passed in January. In addition, a law on amnesty for National Liberation Army (NLA) fighters who handed over their arms before September 26 was passed on March 7, 2002. President Trajkovski stated that "the entire political structure of Macedonia is committed to the Ohrid agreement," a statement that found broad resonance during the three-day meeting. The president in particular pointed to the recently passed amnesty law as a critical element in facilitating the re-entry of police into all communities, which many in the ethnic Macedonian community pointed to as the most important unresolved issue. He said that full implementation of the Ohrid agreement would mean that his country met the political requirements for NATO and EU membership. "No other country offers such a model of interethnic relations," the president said. The president said he was optimistic that work to implement the accord will lead to a constructive environment in the run-up to the September elections. On the other hand, ethnic Albanian officials were critical of what they see as the government's lack of commitment to implement the agreement. In particular, they said that the law on local government does not go far enough in allowing local communities to finance their own activities, leaving them at the mercy of central government ministries. "It depends on the will of certain ministries whether the money pledged to the town will get here," said Murtezan Ismali, the mayor of Tetovo. In discussions with ethnic Albanians, it seemed that they put great faith in the Ohrid agreement as the vehicle for realising their aspirations, but they expressed doubts about the commitment of the ethnic Macedonian majority toward full implementation. All political parties and ethnic groups pointed to the September parliamentary elections as a critical point for the country, as did Alain LeRoy, the special representative of the European Union in Skopje. Mr LeRoy said that corruption is one of the most pressing problems facing the country, and the European Commission has called for "a big anti-corruption campaign." As a result, the elections will determine who will control the large state-owned sector of the economy and the ensuing patronage that flows from it. Vladimir Milcin, director of the Skopje office of the Open Society Foundation, noted that because international organisations work with the government, citizens have the same negative view of those organisations as they have of the government. Mr Milcin cited a recent poll that showed that ethnic Macedonians believe that effective security measures, strengthening the rule of law, and judicial independence are the most important factors for peace and stability. For the ethnic Albanian community, a state-funded university teaching in Albanian is a top priority, followed by full implementation of the Ohrid agreement and anti-discrimination measures. While 84% of ethnic Albanians believe implementation is essential for peace and stability, only 13% of ethnic Macedonians believe this. While in Tetovo, the delegation visited South-east Europe University, an independent, privately funded university set up to replace the University of Tetovo, an Albanian institution that was never accredited by the government. It opened in September 2001 at a cost of EURO 36 million ($32 million), with the United States, Netherlands, European Union and Norway among the leading contributors. Instruction is in Albanian, Macedonian and English, and ethnic Albanians make up most of the 923 students. The delegation also met in Tetovo with a group of ethnic Macedonians who still are unable to return to their homes in surrounding villages. Needless to say, they were angry that implementation is lagging on the provisions of the agreement pertaining to their return and re-integration into their communities. They also raised concerns about 12 people they said were kidnapped during the crisis and still not accounted for, including the 68-year-old father of one man. III. SECURITY SITUATION Local and international officials say that the security situation remains stable but tense. Conflict between the ethnic Macedonian and Albanian communities has died down, and the few clashes that were taking place at the time of the visit were largely between different ethnic Albanian factions. Officials in Skopje and Tetovo said the main line of division in that community is between the NLA, which has largely accepted the Ohrid Agreement, and a splinter organisation calling itself the Albanian National Army (ANA), which opposes the political solution. Officials characterised the ANA as a small group of criminals who fear that peace will enable government security forces to crack down on the organised crime and smuggling that they carry out, threatening their current economic situation. Interior Minister Ljube Boskovski, who oversees the national police, said that police have re-entered all villages where they had operated before last year's conflict. He said the few villages that remained without police presence were isolated areas that have been off limits to central authorities since the days of the Ottoman Empire. "We are satisfied with the reintegration of the police," Mr Boskovski said. "We are encountering some difficulties, but we are overcoming those difficulties." Mr Ismali, the mayor of Tetovo, shared the assessment that the multi-ethnic police have entered "almost 99% of the villages." Brig. Gen. Heinz-Georg Keerl, the commander of Task Force Fox, the German-led NATO unit that is protecting international monitors in the country, 24 villages remained off limits to police, many of them because snow and cold in the mountains made access difficult. Police had been driven out of 142 villages during the violence last year. According to Task Force Fox, the security environment is calm. Task Force Fox intelligence assessments are that there are "no indications for a spring offensive" by the NLA, but tensions and mistrust remain between the Macedonian and Albanian communities. General Keerl said he is "concerned about the lack of will among both ethnic groups to talk to each other." He said that 3,000 government soldiers remain deployed in the field, and the deployment of government tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and artillery pieces are perceived as provocative by the ethnic Albanian community. The German general said he has asked the government to shift its forces to the borders with Kosovo, Serbia and Albania. A patrol in the region around Tetovo with Task Force Fox soldiers showed that signs of last year's conflict still remain, and both sides could quickly resume the positions that they abandoned when the peace agreement was signed. Dozens of checkpoints lined the roads of the region (Task Force Fox estimated there were 90 still in place) - most were abandoned but in place, a few were manned by forces in army uniforms. In addition, army and police positions were visible in many farm fields (Task Force Fox estimated there were more than 300), and the Albanian community was particularly concerned that they be removed in time for farmers to begin planting. Task Force Fox continues to focus on the north-western region of the country, especially north and west of Skopje. Concerns include ethnic Albanian infiltrators from Kosovo and the Presevo Valley region of southern Serbia, as well as mines and unexploded ordnance. At the same time, organised crime and corruption remain the biggest threats to the stability of the country, as the government faces problems in combating the arms trade, prostitution, drug trafficking, smuggling, blackmail, and protection rackets. IV. OPERATION AMBER FOX Operation Amber Fox, was established on September 26, 2001, to protect 70 to 100 international monitors from the EU and OSCE who are overseeing the implementation of the August 2001 Ohrid agreement. It is the successor to Operation Essential Harvest, the 30-day NATO mission to oversee collection of weapons from ethnic Albanian rebels in the wake of the peace agreement. Operation Amber Fox is being carried out by Task Force Fox, the 700-strong German-led NATO force. At this writing, the Netherlands had agreed to take over command of the operation on June 27, when the German mission ends, and the Dutch command would remain in place between three to six months, depending on whether the EU takes over in September. The future of the international presence in the country is discussed in the next chapter. Lt. Gen. Francisco Carretero, NATO's senior military representative in Skopje, was serving as commander of Operation Amber Fox. At the time of the sub-committees' visit, NATO had just begun a reorganisation of its presence in the country, bringing the KFOR Rear command, which provides logistical and other support to the peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, under the command of the senior military representative in Skopje. General Carretero was also responsible for the NATO Coordination and Cooperation Centre in Skopje, which serves as a military liaison between the Alliance and the Macedonian armed forces. The restructuring was to cut the personnel of the three headquarters (KFOR Rear, Amber Fox, and senior military representative) from about 370 personnel to 260. General Carretero said that while Operation Amber Fox is limited in size, the presence of NATO troops in the country "has a great indirect effect," deterring those forces that might seek a return to violence. He noted that the NATO military presence was requested by the EU and OSCE monitors overseeing implementation of the Ohrid Agreement, and he said that the mission would be successfully concluded "when the monitors don't need NATO support anymore." He said that closer integration of the missions in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Kosovo would allow NATO to better provide security in the region because of relatively easy movement across the border. At their headquarters in the future Skopje Free Trade Zone, about 20 km east of Skopje, General Keerl and his Task Force Fox command team briefed the sub-committees on the operation of his unit. The main duties of the task force were to provide support to the international monitors, military liaison with Macedonian forces, maintain the ability to perform two simultaneous extraction operations of international monitors, and provide its own force protection. Of the 700 personnel, Germany was providing the headquarters and an extraction company, while France and Italy each were providing an extraction company. Eight other nations - Belgium, Poland, Greece, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal and Turkey -- also supplied troops for some of the 40 field liaison teams, which patrol regularly and provide intelligence and early warning to headquarters. While providing no troops, the United States was providing most helicopter support, and KFOR Rear was providing logistical support. Task Force Fox officers said that the unit has not had to perform an extraction of international monitors since the mission began, but they perform extraction exercises every two months in order to remain prepared. In addition to the headquarters near Skopje, the sub-committees visited the German base at Erebino, near Tetovo, a KFOR base that also serves as home to the German company and field liaison teams. Officers described the work of the four-member field liaison teams as "confidence building," sitting in cafes and talking to the local people about what they hear regarding the security situation. Because many people in the region have worked in Germany or have learned to speak English, they find that language is not a barrier. V. FUTURE INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE At the time of the sub-committees' visit, one of the main questions about the international military presence in the country concerned whether the EU would take over command of Operation Amber Fox. EU officials, most notably Javier Solana, the High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, had recently stated that the EU should make the mission the first operation for the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). While the prospect of an EU mission has support from many EU countries, it also drew opposition from those who feared that the EU was insufficiently prepared to undertake a military operation if the security situation deteriorates and forces found themselves in a combat situation. NATO and EU officials in Skopje concluded that the EU was capable of taking over the mission by the end of this year. The conclusion of those Western officials was that the mission could be structured so that a future EU force would work closely enough with NATO to ensure force protection, while relieving the burden on NATO of conducting three peace missions in South-eastern Europe. At the time of the visit, the structure of Operation Amber Fox had General Keerl, the commander of Task Force Fox, reporting to General Carretero in Skopje, who in turn reported to NATO's AFSOUTH headquarters in Naples, Italy, and ultimately to the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Mons. General Keerl was forthright in telling the sub-committees that he was confronted with too many layers of command and that his successor's job could be made easier by allowing him to report directly to the Deputy SACEUR, a European general at SHAPE. Because the Deputy SACEUR is always a British or German general, he can be "double-hatted" to also command an EU force. Ambassador Nick Biegman, a Dutch diplomat who serves as NATO's senior civilian representative in Skopje, noted that the restructuring of NATO forces would facilitate an EU takeover of Operation Amber Fox. "We are entirely ready and happy for the EU to take over," the NATO representative said. He said that arrangements could be made for the EU to use some NATO assets that are already in place "and just repaint some vehicles." He noted that all Task Force Fox troops came from European countries, and while there were some from outside of the EU, arrangements are in place for non-EU countries to participate in ESDP. General Carretero, NATO's senior military representative, said that the lead nation in Task Force Fox would provide the headquarters for the mission and would be responsible for liaison with the Macedonian authorities. Mr LeRoy, the EU's special representative in Skopje, said that the EU would probably not be in a position to take over the mission until after the Macedonian parliamentary elections, to be held sometime in September. He expected that the EU would take over sometime between the end of September and the end of the year, with the mission probably continuing until Summer 2003, the earliest that the 70 to 100 international monitors could be removed, he said. That is the time when ethnic Albanian police officers are to complete their training to join the national police, possibly signalling the final implementation of the Ohrid agreements. He noted that the EU Military Committee in Brussels would be responsible for deciding how the force would operate, to whom the commander would report, and how to structure liaison with the Macedonian authorities. "I think the EU will stay as close as possible to the NATO mandate," he said. Prime Minister Georgievski said that the government believed that there will be a further need for an international security force in the country at least through the end of this year and perhaps beyond. He said NATO and the EU should decide who will command the force, and the government would look forward to working with either organisation. VI. RELATIONS WITH NATO The primary foreign policy goals of the country remain membership in NATO and the EU, according to Muhammed Halili, deputy foreign minister. "Even if we have no chance of becoming a member at the Prague Summit, maybe sometime in the near future the Republic of Macedonia will become a full member of NATO structures," he said. President Trajkovski said that security in South-eastern Europe would be enhanced if his country, Albania and Croatia were also included in the upcoming round of enlargement. "We'll be really sad if Macedonia is left out of the group that will be invited in Prague. I think it's very dangerous if the southern wing is not represented," the president said. He added that NATO membership for his country would contribute to the stability and security of the country and the wider region, noting that it "has a position of the utmost importance to the region." Despite these entreaties, NATO officials were pessimistic about the country's chances of receiving an invitation to join the Alliance at the Prague Summit. "At this stage, it doesn't look promising," said Mr Biegman, the NATO representative in Skopje. He said that the Alliance will need to work to "prevent a fatal sense of disappointment among the public," recommending enhancement of the Membership Action Plan (MAP) and presenting the decision as necessary to give the country more time to implement its defence reform plans. In meetings with the defence and foreign policy committees of the Assembly of the Republic, and in a panel discussion with local experts outside of government, there was a sentiment expressed that NATO was becoming more popular in the eyes of the Macedonian people. Several representatives indicated that the Alliance had been viewed as "pro-Albanian" in the eyes of many ethnic Macedonians, given its intervention in Kosovo and how it pressured the government to reach a political accommodation with their own ethnic Albanian insurgents. One member of parliament attributed this to the government's failure to "properly explain" the role of NATO, but several noted that the ensuing stability since NATO deployed troops in August 2001 has won over most citizens. Still, there was some frustration with the country's efforts to join NATO - one member asked for "a list of what Macedonia must do to join NATO by 2004" - and some misunderstanding of NATO, with some calling for the military alliance to combat corruption. There is also some sense that the NATO nations have forgotten the important and essential role that the country played during the 1999 Kosovo crisis. President Trajkovski said, "We helped the international community save 360,000 lives," and he noted that his country has been essential for NATO forces to reach Kosovo and to keep those forces supplied. "We have contributed to peace and security in the region," the president said. VII. DEFENSE POLICY The country had to build its armed forces from scratch after withdrawing from the Yugoslav Federation a decade ago. According to Defence Minister Vlado Popovski, plans have been drawn up in consultation with NATO for a peacetime force of 12,000, of whom 60% will be professional officers and non-commissioned officers. The goal of the armed forces will be to create a national defence capability to defend the country against any external threat and to create the capacity to participate in NATO peace operations. Mr Popovski said that ground forces are being organised into two brigades of 3,200 personnel each, one in the east and one in the west of the country, each including an armoured battalion and motorised and artillery units. There will also be an aviation and air defence command, special forces, and logistics and training commands. The defence minister said that the first brigade has been fully staffed and the armed forces have formed the second brigade and are beginning to staff it. To meet personnel needs, the armed forces have accepted more than 2,000 professional soldiers this year, and the full complement of 7,200 professionals is to be met next year. The minister said he is trying to increase the number of ethnic Albanians in the armed forces. While the number has been doubled to 3% of the total force, he said "it is still not enough," and the military has a programme to attract educated young Albanians to the armed forces. The defence budget for 2002 is set at $85 million (EURO 95 million), 2.6% of gross domestic project, and plans call for $152 million (EURO 169 million) to be spent on transformation over the next five years. Mr Popovski said that the army has enough heavy armament, including 84 T-55 and 31 T-72 tanks, with plans to retire some older T-55s in order to reach a level of 62 tanks when the country joins NATO. The army also relies on armoured transport vehicles and artillery pieces. Mr Popovski said that future procurement will be linked to the country's NATO Partnership Goals. The minister said that training is at a "medium" level because the crisis last year meant training was postponed. Mr Popovski was keen to emphasize the training that the army is undertaking through the South-eastern European Brigade (SEEBRIG), a multinational peacekeeping formation based in Bulgaria. Skopje is contributing a mechanised company and armoured personnel carriers to the Italian battalion in SEEBRIG, according to Lt. Gen. Metodi Stamboliski, the chief of the armed forces. VIII. FOREIGN POLICY With regard to relations with its neighbours, Mr Halili, the deputy foreign minister, said that the country welcomes the agreement between Serbia and Montenegro to form a new state to replace the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, with which Skopje has maintained good relations. Prime Minister Georgievski said relations with Greece, which had been poor immediately after independence, are "today on a high level." The country has also signed free trade agreements with 10 neighbouring countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania. Relations are good with the newly appointed UN administration in Kosovo, Mr Halili said, but there has been some tension with the newly elected government of Kosovo over a border agreement. The deputy minister emphasized that this matter rests with the UN and is beyond the purview of the new Kosovar government, and he insisted that the final status of Kosovo cannot be resolved until the province has resolved all outstanding issues with its neighbours. Prime Minister Georgievski said that security in the region is linked to economic stability, and he criticised the slow progress of the Stability Pact for South-eastern Europe, which was supposed to be the vehicle for Western economic assistance to the region. The prime minister did express gratitude for the support that his country received from the donors conference in March 2002, which included $274 million (EURO 304 million) for reconstruction and implementation of the Ohrid Agreement and a further $241 million (EURO 268 million) for general economic development. He said that the country has registered "significant economic growth" since the peace agreement was signed, though unemployment, officially at 32%, remains a large problem. IX. CONCLUSION The NATO military presence has helped ensure that there is no return to fighting in the country, but the situation between the two main ethnic communities remains tense as the government continues to implement the Ohrid agreement. The sporadic violence reported in the region around Tetovo is largely attributed to in-fighting between ethnic Albanian groups, instigated by a small splinter faction that sees peace as a threat to the illegal smuggling activity that relies on instability and lawlessness. While the country is unlikely to receive an invitation at the Prague Summit to join NATO, its relations with the Alliance have improved, and it is working to reform its armed forces in order to join at the earliest possible time. The international community is likely to stay in the country for at least another year, overseeing the implementation of the peace agreement and providing a small military force for protection of international observers. With the risk of full-scale fighting diminished, the European Union is likely to take over the Operation Amber Fox mission as the first operation for its ESDP sometime by the end of this year. Any EU force is likely to depend on NATO for some logistical support and as a backup in case the situation should deteriorate; nevertheless, a lead nation for an EU force should be able to provide the necessary headquarters. Appropriate command arrangements, such as having the commander of the EU force report directly to the Deputy SACEUR, could ensure a smooth relationship between the EU and NATO and the success of an EU-led mission.

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