16 November 2008 - Situation in Pakistan “more dire” than Afghanistan, expert warns

“The civilian government in Pakistan  needs more international support to face problems in three major areas,” Mr Rashid said. “There is an economic crisis, which is the result of lack of structural changes during the military rule of Mr. Musharraf; a terrorist threat from militias controlling the semi-autonomous Federally Administered Tribal Areas near the Afghan border; and a difficult relationship between the government and the military, which is refusing to move against insurgents”.

The civilian government in Islamabad  is “very open” to rectifying the errors of the past and convincing the Pakistani military to rein in the terrorist threat in the FATA. But “unless the decision-makers in Pakistan decide to make stabilizing the Afghan government a higher priority than countering the Indian threat, the insurgency conducted from bases in Pakistan will continue”, explained Rashid.

No multilateral framework exists to deal with the complex and entwined problems of the region, Rashid pointed out. NATO has no clear Pakistan  policy, despite the fact that its troops in Afghanistan are suffering losses from Pakistan-based insurgents. The UN Security Council “has hardly discussed Pakistan ’s role in Afghanistan ”.

As the incoming US administration has talked about a “surge” in Afghanistan and renewed political efforts in the region, this should be elevated to a “high-level diplomatic initiative” to build a genuine consensus on the achievement of Afghan stability by addressing the sources of Pakistan’s instability, according to Rashid. This should include a settlement of the Kashmir dispute, which would allow the Pakistani military to concentrate its efforts on the border with Afghanistan  .

“A first step”, Rashid suggested, “could be the establishment of a contact group on the region authorized by the UN Security Council” including the five permanent members, NATO and Saudi Arabia, and promoting dialogue among all regional actors. Such dialogue would have to be complemented by “a multilayer international development aid package”, aimed particularly at the border regions.