14 June 2011 - NATO PA DELEGATION ON REQUIREMENTS AND CHALLENGES OF SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN

July 20 will mark the official start of transition, with the transfer of 7 locations to lead Afghan security responsibility. These include 3 provinces – Bamyan, Panjshayr, and Kabul –, and 4 municipalities in other provinces, which together are home to an estimated 21% of the Afghan population. The delegation heard of a shared commitment by NATO and Afghan officials alike to the process of transition, but also of the requirements and risks that transition entails.

First and foremost, consolidating and expanding gains in the security field will be essential to the success of transition. In meetings with ISAF officials and a visit to Regional Command-South, the delegation heard of the coalition’s focus on interdicting supply lines and targeting insurgent leadership, although the impact of operations conducted in the winter of 2010 would only be felt in the summer of 2011, ISAF officials warned. Insurgent sanctuaries in Pakistan also posed an ongoing challenge. 

The ability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF)  to lead operations was the key to transition, ISAF officials stressed, and “revolutionary changes” were being achieved in building up, training and equipping the ANSF with a stated goal of 352,000 ANSF personnel by mid 2012, including 195,000 Afghan National Army (ANA) and 157,000 Afghan National Police (ANP) personnel. 

Mindful that governments were already looking to reduce their military footprint in Afghanistan, interlocutors in Kabul urged ISAF nations to reinvest dividends. Thus, the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan (NTM-A) warned of a prospective shortfall of 470 trainers in March 2012, and a continuing large shortfall of 450 Police Operational Mentoring and Liaison Teams (POMLTs).

Gains in the security field also needed to be supported by further efforts in support of governance and development. NATO officials reported progress in several areas, including provincial and district level governance. Meeting with the district governor in Dand district in Kandahar province, the delegation was able to witness one such positive experience of local governance.  

However, as NATO and Afghanistan begin implementing transition, realism and expectation management would be essential, NATO and Afghan officials stressed. Transition needed to be distinguished from the longer-term goal of transforming Afghanistan, a process which will continue far beyond 2014, and which NATO can influence but not direct, the delegation heard.

It would be unrealistic to expect the ANSF to sustain themselves without external support by the end of 2014, NATO and Afghan officials stressed. Support for the ANSF would therefore need to continue beyond 2014. The training role performed by NTM-A and the EU Police Mission (EUPOL) in Afghanistan in particular would remain vital. A long-term solution also needed to be found for shouldering the cost of sustaining the ANSF, a cost currently estimated at some 8 billion dollars, or 50% of the estimated Afghan GDP. 

In the fields of governance and development, setting realistic objectives for the transition period was also essential. NATO would focus on “smart support” for governance and development, the delegation heard, but it could not take responsibility for the future of Afghanistan. Afghans needed to understand that the country will remain poor and continue to struggle with the impact of 30 years of civil war for the foreseeable future, both Afghan and NATO officials pointed out. In addition, the Kabul Bank scandal, involving losses of several hundred million dollars in connection with a series of undocumented loans, continued to raise serious concern, and risked negatively impacting future financial aid pledges for Afghanistan.

The delegation stressed the need to address other potential risks connected with transition. The end of President Karzai’s mandate in 2014 would no doubt raise difficult questions of succession at a sensitive time that will coincide with the end of the process of transition. Accountability and democratic control of the ANSF were essential to counter the risk of Afghanistan ever turning into a military dictatorship. There were also serious concerns about the expected economic shock that Afghanistan is likely to suffer when the estimated 10-15 billion dollars currently generated by the international presence leaves the country.

Continued support for the development of central institutions, including the Afghan Parliament, remained essential, the delegation stressed. Both members of the delegation and Afghan parliamentarians expressed an interest in strengthening the existing partnership between the Afghan Parliament and the NATO PA. Meetings with members of the Wolesi and Meshrano Jirga highlighted ongoing tensions between the legislative and executive branches over the confirmation of officials, the Special Elections Tribunal and the planned convocation of a traditional Loya Jirga.

Afghan and international officials all stressed the importance of ongoing efforts to achieve political reconciliation, including by securing Pakistan ’s support for the process.  With the start of transition, now was also the time to start preparing the ground for long-term relations between Afghanistan and its international partners, and engaging Afghanistan ’s neighbours in a joint effort to promote regional stability and prosperity.

The delegation was composed as follows:

-          Hugh Bayley (UK ), Vice-President of the NATO PA and Chairman of the Economics and Security Committee; 

 -          Jan Alrid Ellingsen (Norway ), Chairman of the Science and Technology Committee; 

-          Helge Adam Moller (Denmark ), Head of the Danish delegation to the NATO PA;

-          Jeppe Kofod (Denmark ), Rapporteur of the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Economic Relations;

-          Didier Boulaud (France ), member of the Defence and Security Committee.

A detailed report of this visit will be available shortly. Information from the visit will feed into the NATO PA’s discussions on Afghanistan. In 2011, all five Committees of the Assembly are discussing reports on the different aspects of transition in Afghanistan. To view these draft reports follow this link.

These drafts will be updated and presented for adoption at the Assembly’s annual session in Bucharest in October 2011.

The NATO PA delegation with Dand district governor Nazik and RC-South Commanders

Hugh Bayley (UK) with the Speaker of the Wolesi Jirga, Abdul Raouf Ibrahim