Jeroen VAN WIJNGAARDEN (Netherlands) - PRELIMINARY DRAFT REPORT
24 April 2023
Russia’s invasion unleashed the most violent and consequential conventional war on the European continent since World War II. The war sent immediate shockwaves that continue to resonate along the Alliance’s eastern flank, from the High North down to the Black and Mediterranean Seas. The impact on Baltic Sea security is ongoing and represents a potentially wholesale transformation of the region’s security order.
In the run up to and immediately following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Allies surged maritime, land, and air forces to the Baltic to reinforce NATO’s regional deterrence and defence posture. Less than three months later, Sweden and Finland submitted their letters of application to join NATO together on 18 May 2022. With their bids to join the Alliance, both states abandoned
long-standing and relatively entrenched positions of neutrality. Finland’s accession, and Sweden’s future accession, to NATO will fundamentally impact the security order of the Baltic Sea region.
This preliminary draft report reviews the significant changes to Baltic Sea security since the end of the Cold War, focusing on the rapid shift to the region’s security after 2014. These changes are the key drivers for Finland and Sweden’s relative about-face in their foreign security policies. It assesses the impact of the expansion on NATO’s north-eastern flank via the addition of Finland as the 31st NATO Ally, and reviews the immediate contributions Finland will bring, and what Sweden has the potential to bring, to the Alliance, as well as the potential roles each will be able to play in the Alliance post-accession. It concludes with a set of recommendations for NATO member state parliaments and governments to consider as they negotiate another challenging and rapidly changing year in Euro-Atlantic security.
