2024 - CHINA’S CHALLENGE TO NATO’S TECHNOLOGICAL EDGE: THE ROLE OF SEMICONDUCTORS

NJALL TRAUSTI FRIDBERTSSON (Iceland) - PRELIMINARY DRAFT GENERAL REPORT

30 April 2024

As the Alliance is celebrating its 75th anniversary, it finds itself in a world characterised by geopolitical and strategic competition. Emerging disruptive technologies (EDT) play a central role in this environment as they are driving forces behind economic growth and competitiveness. However, technological superiority does not only matter for the economy but also has ramifications for security and defence. It is, therefore, crucial that the Alliance maintains its technological edge. The main actor who may be in a position to challenge NATO’s technological superiority is the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Semiconductors play a pivotal role in this regard. On the one hand, semiconductors are essential components of electronic devices and the building blocks of modern technology and innovation. On the other hand, semiconductors are emblematic of strategic competition, economic fragmentation, and the centrality of technology to security considerations. As such, various countries have launched initiatives to reduce their dependencies on external actors for the supply of chips and also restrict exports to competitors. Moreover, semiconductors are critical components of high-end military capabilities. Maintaining access to high-end chips is, therefore, a priority for the Alliance in order to maintain its technological edge.

This preliminary draft report contributes to this objective. To this end, it provides an overview of the ways in which China can challenge NATO’s technological edge, an analysis of semiconductors and their central role for technological competition, and an evaluation of ongoing activities by Allies and China in this subject area. These discussions provide the basis to draw preliminary conclusions and develop recommendations for further actions that include a critical assessment of dependencies and supply chain risks vis-à-vis China whilst continuing to engage with the PRC’s leadership, a strengthening of coordination and cooperation efforts of Allies and partners when it comes to semiconductor initiatives, an increase of awareness raising and outreach campaigns to unite multiple stakeholders, and an evaluation of the ways in which NATO’s EDT-related activities can support NATO member countries in the area of semiconductors.