Theo FRANCKEN (Belgium) - REPORT
04 November 2024
Russia’s brutal and illegal invasion of Ukraine has not only fundamentally altered the security situation along NATO’s eastern flank, but it has also had spillover impacts across the globe. The Middle East, North Africa and Sahel regions are particularly affected and represent an integral element of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s global ambitions. Burdened by structural weaknesses, however, Moscow is compelled to seek opportunity in instability to advance its regional agenda. Russia’s approach to these regions is thus opportunistic, transactional, conditional and destabilising.
Through geopolitical opportunism, Moscow has positioned itself to exploit perceived Western vulnerabilities in an asymmetric fashion while leveraging anti-Western sentiments prevalent among state and non-state actors across NATO’s southern neighbourhood. Russia’s so-called “private” militias have spearheaded these efforts. Russian militia groups carry out intelligence gathering, training, disinformation and proxy militia functions in exchange for access to local businesses and natural resources.
Russian attempts to weaponise migration are particularly concerning. In fragile regions, weakened by unaccountable governments, ongoing insurrection, weapons and people trafficking, as well as climate change-induced desertification and famine, the risk of mass migration flows is ever present and of direct concern to Europe. Russia has done nothing to provide stability or humanitarian relief – it has neither the interest nor resources to do so. It traffics in instability and sees the mass movement of people towards Europe as beneficial in that it burdens frontline Allied nations and foments political instability. European Allies must do much more to curb uncontrolled migration and cannot allow Russia to weaponise human misery for the purposes of undermining Allied solidarity.
Russia’s economy is highly dependent on energy exports, and it has worked particularly closely in the OPEC+ forum to maintain high prices that compensate for losses linked to international sanctions on its oil industry. Energy revenues underwrite Russia’s war on Ukraine and greater efforts are needed both to tighten international sanctions targeting Russia’s energy industry and to ensure the security of Allied energy supply.
Russia’s burgeoning relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran demonstrates in an unequivocal manner the connections the Kremlin now makes between the Ukrainian theatre and the broader MENA region. Tehran has become a critical supplier of weapons to Russia and its missiles and munitions have had a devastating impact not only on the battlefields of Ukraine but also on its civilian infrastructure. Iran is also underwriting the activities of groups in the region like Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi rebels, intent on destabilising the region. While all Allied countries must concern themselves with developments in the broader MENA region, it is important to recognise the exposure of NATO’s southern Allies to developments in the region and the key role that they play in defending all Allies from threats emanating from there. These frontline countries are all contributing to collective security through their efforts to stabilise the region, deter aggression, and work with southern partners and neighbours to address critical development, migration, and security challenges.
