Document

2024 - WESTERN BALKANS: RENEWED SECURITY CHALLENGES ON NATO’S DOORSTEP

LORD MARK LANCASTER (United Kingdom) - REPORT

24 November 2024

2023 witnessed a significant return of violent confrontations in northern Kosovo. The incidents sounded an alarm bell to the international community about the seriousness of the persistent challenges in the Western Balkans. The absence of a pathway to the normalisation of relations between Belgrade and Pristina sows the threat of serious conflict with potential regional implications. Allies responded to the escalation in violence in Kosovo by reinforcing their KFOR mission, which included more heavily armed forces adapted to handle the changing security dynamics. 

Political tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) also has latent potential to break down the Dayton Agreement, which has held a tenuous peace between the principal constituent peoples of the country for almost 30 years. The High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina recently portrayed the political situation in the country as a ‘mixed picture’, emphasising that, despite some progress toward European integration, attempts to undermine the General Framework Agreement for Peace continued. 

In a region in which almost all states and territories look for a Euro-Atlantic future, recalcitrant issue sets in Kosovo and BiH must refocus significant Allied attention: Allies must come to terms with the potential for broader destabilisation these challenges pose. A stalled Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and charged political paralysis in BiH prevent the advancement of Serbia, BiH, and Kosovo on the EU path; remain the principal factor for regional instability; block efficient regional economic integration; and underwrite criminal networks’ exploitation of the regions’ weak institutions for the trafficking of arms, drugs and people. Further complicating the issues are the inroads presented by the persistence of corruption and weak state institutions for Russian and Chinese influence – while each has different goals in the region, they are aligned in their broader counter-West efforts, which includes the splintering of Allied consensus and blocking the consolidation of the Euro Atlantic.

Despite these challenges, Allies stressed the Western Balkans’ strategic importance and their continued commitment to their security and stability at the Washington Summit. Allies stated they will continue to “enhance [their] political dialogue and practical cooperation…to support reforms, regional peace and security, and counter malign influence, including disinformation, hybrid, and cyber threats, posed by both state and non-state actors” (NATO, 2024b). 

This report highlights the root causes and current drivers of the region’s main security challenges and advocates for greater attention to the resolution of the Belgrade-Pristina dispute and increased political attention to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political stalemate. The key means to doing so are via renewed efforts to facilitate EU expansion in the region. NATO Allies must also realise their view on the region has to change: KFOR must receive more support and Allies must find new ways and means to expand their military cooperation with the region to help turn the tide of a regional security dynamic headed in the wrong direction at a challenging time in Euro-Atlantic security.  
 


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